Twenty pubs were sold in Dublin during 2024, with a total market value of approximately €69.6 million – a significant increase from 2023, when the same number of sales generated €47.3 million.
This according to research from Lisney, Ireland’s largest independently owned multidisciplinary property advisory company, which found that a total of 21 licensed premises were publicly offered for sale in Dublin during 2024 – a notable reduction on the 34 offered publicly in 2023.
Publicans remained the dominant purchaser class, accounting for 55% of volume and 37% of value. Developer activity also increased, representing 20% of volume and 19% of value.
‘Softening Of Profitability’
‘The 2024 Dublin licensed premises property market saw a steady flow of transactions, with sales volume reflecting the activity levels of 2023,’ according to the Licensed and Leisure Team at Lisney.
‘We predict continued demand for city centre locations, though a softening of profitability is expected for certain businesses and trading locations.
‘This is due to rising staff costs and increases in product prices that cannot be fully passed onto consumers.’
Private-Equity Investments
Lisney noted that despite accounting for only three transactions in 2024, private-equity investments represented 39% of the total market value.
Of the properties publicly offered for sale in 2024, six were directly linked to challenges arising from the conclusion of the debt-warehousing scheme.
The research found that last year, operators faced a number of obstacles, many of which will persist into 2025, including the 6.2% increase in the minimum wage, which has intensified financial pressures.
The main factors driving supply in 2024 were retirement and business realignment, with 80% of the sales completed publicly being retirement driven. By year end, nine pubs had been sold publicly, with a further 11 sales concluded off-market.
Challenges
Challenges faced by the licensed-premises sector during 2024 included staffing, rising utility costs, VAT on food sales, group debt warehousing, and the availability of bank finance.
Lisney notes that the 6.2% increase in the national minimum wage to €13.50 in January 2025 – alongside the introduction of additional labour-related measures, such as statutory sick pay, increased public holidays, pension auto-enrolment, and PRSI increases – has further contributed to the ‘financial pressures’ faced by operators.
It also noted the VAT rate on the sale of alcohol has remained at 23%, and the VAT rate on food at 13.5%, despite the Licensed Vintners’ Association (LVA) and the Vintners’ Federation of Ireland (VFI) lobbying the government for a return to the 9% rate on food sales, in an effort to protect jobs.
‘While most businesses will remain viable, operators are likely to see lower returns in 2025, which may influence decisions to sell versus hold,’ according to the Licensed and Leisure Team at Lisney.
‘As a result, we anticipate a decline in demand for some suburban food-driven businesses that have had to absorb cost pressures.’
Outlook
According to Lisney, demand in 2025 is expected to concentrate on large suburban venues and prime city centre locations, where the potential for premium pricing will offer greater flexibility to adjust prices in line with cost inflation.
It predicts that the purchaser profile will be the same as per previous years, with publicans being the dominant purchaser class. Developers are expected to remain active, particularly in pursuing suburban sites large enough to accommodate the critical number of units needed to justify development.
However, Lisney noted that licensed-premises sites are typically only suitable for apartment projects, and demand for such sites outside prime areas, except for social and affordable housing, has declined significantly due to rising construction costs.
Private Transactions
The group noted that private-equity buyers are expected to remain active in 2025, seeking investment opportunities. However, due to their specific criteria and the limited availability of suitable assets, Lisney anticipates only a small number of transactions, primarily in the €6 million-and-over value range.
‘The trend of off-market sales is expected to persist into 2025, particularly for high-value city centre units,’ noted the Licensed and Leisure Team at Lisney.
‘These sales cater to a limited but active, well-funded market, making private transactions the preference for many publicans.’
