Just Eat Takeaway forecast a nearly 40% jump in 2024 core earnings on Wednesday, banking on strong growth in its key British and Irish markets that is being driven by simpler and more efficient delivery operations and higher food prices.
The company's shares rose briefly in early trading before falling more than 4%, with one trader saying the lack of a new share buyback programme may disappoint investors. Analysts said the outlook was in line with market expectations.
Food delivery firms have been struggling to shift to stable profitability amid rampant customer churn rates after the sector boomed during the pandemic.
Britain And Ireland
However, the frequency of orders via takeaway apps seems to be picking up, helped by the companies' broader offerings with the addition of grocery and retail categories.
Just Eat, Europe's biggest food delivery company by revenue, sees adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about €450 million in the current year, compared with €324 million in 2023.
It said the EBITDA margin in Britain and Ireland was rapidly approaching the high level in Northern Europe, which makes up a lion's share of the group's earnings.
Grubhub
Northern Europe posted an annual margin of 4.8% on an EBITDA of €366 million, with Britain and Ireland at 2% on earnings of €135 million.
The annual EBITDA came broadly in line with the figure pre-announced in January. Jefferies said in a note that regionally, Northern Europe was below expectations while North America, Britain and Ireland were ahead.
The group expects its gross transaction value - a common metric for delivery firms measuring the total value of all goods sold - to grow by 2% to 6% in 2024, excluding North America where it continues to explore a partial or full sale of its Grubhub business.
2024 And Beyond
Just East's revenue declined by 16% in North America last year due to lower orders, investments in consumer pricing, and unfavourable foreign exchange rates.
Its total revenue fell 7% to €5.17 billion.
Just Eat, which broke even on free cash flow in the second half of 2023, expects its cash flow to stay positive in 2024 and beyond.
